If you read last nights post about using 4-1-2-1-2 or 4-1-3-2 you realized that I obviously meant 4-4-2 or an entirely different formation right? Well, frankly it's a bit too soon to talk about specific formations for my Lota Schwager squad. Tomorrow the third position analysis post will be published. This time about central defenders. It would be foolish to decide on a formation without analysing all players in the squad the same way. Which leads me to to the topic of todays post. Selection policy.
The question is really simple. How can I decide on a formation without knowinig all the facts!
I obviously shouldn't, but I'm pretty sure I'm not the first who has made an attempt at that. And FM actually lends itself really well to making somewhat uninformed decisions. Here are a couple of selelction methods I have usded in the past.
Assistant Reports: Using the subjective opinion of my assistant manager to select the squad has been a proven initial selection method in my FM saves. When I say proven I don't necessarily mean proven to be succesfull! The main strength of using the assistant reports is that you can quickly get an overview of who you should select based on the number of stars assigned to each player. The weakness is that this star ranking is based entirely on the assistant managers opinion. This is fine if your assistant manager is good at judging a players ability, if he is not you will find yourself in a very bad place!
Average Rating: Selecting the players in each position with the highest average ratinig ensures you get the player who has performed best throughout the season on the pitch. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, but if he is on poor form or has low morale at the time you might not be making the best choice. It also says very little about his capability to play a specific role against a specific opponent, however, this can be said about most of the selection methods I use.
Form: This is a good way to get players who are currently performing well on the pitch. It also ensures some rotation in the squad. It's a selection method I use on a regular basis, or at least factor into my overall selection method.
Elaborate Excel Sheet: On this one I will ALWAYS be guilty as charged. I love Excel, and it's gotten to the stage where I can't play Football Manager without using some kind of Excel sheet concocted by yours truly. The main weakness is the time it takes to create these, but if you love Excel this will just add to the exitement.
Careful Analysis Of Opposing Team And Your Own Team: YAAAAWN! This is exactly as time consuming as it sounds, it is definitely even more time consuming than the Excel spreadsheet. There is a big problem though. This is what you SHOULD do! It's definitely not a method suited for the casual gamer, but it works! A less elaborate method is to take some time to set the opposition instructions properly. That maybe a topic for another post :-)
The point is team selection is actually rather tricky. Everybody will work out their own system. Sometimes it will work, sometimes it won't. I have used 4 of the above 5 systems in the past (no prize for guessing which!) with varying degrees of succes. When I'm done analysing possitions I'll probably create a spreadsheet for the purpose of analysing players, maybe I'll make it available to you.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
The First Steps With Lota Schwager
All right, tonight I decided to take a break in analyzing the game and actually play it a bit. The team, as mentioned in a previous post, is Lota Schwager In the Chilean First Division B. Even though I'm playing the game tonight doesn't mean I'll disregard my precious posts. So, first I'll ake a look at what the keepers on my team are up to.
The goalkeeper post suggests there are 4 attributes more important than any others: Reflexes, Jumping, Determination and Agility. The reason these 4 attributes matter more than the others is that at least 30 of more than 100 players had a rating of 16 or more in these attributes. I will determine each keepers base level using those 4 attributes. Of those 4 attributes Reflexes accounts for 34%, Jumping 25%, Determination 24% and Agility 17%. That is something I will take into account.
The first team has 3 keepers:
The Reserve team has one keeper:
Finally the youth team has two keepers on the payroll:
Taking a closer look at the players keeping the 3 first teamers makes sense. Sotelo has a fair amount of natural skill and will be the natural first choice keeper. However, Rodríguez isn't fair behind and will keep him on his toes. Mateluna is a lot better than Bravo and will serve as a backup for the two main goalkeepers. Bravo on the other hand will be moved on. For the time being I will keep both Julio and Piña. They are nearly at the same level and although Julio is a more determined player it's too early to say.
My staff suggests playing either a 4-1-2-1-2 or a 4-1-3-1 formation so I'll set up tactics with both formations. This advice suggests that width will mainly come from my fullbacks. I'm thinking that I wan't to create tactics that work by starving the opposition of chances. I'll build from the back and destroy the opposition with deadly counter attacks - in theory. I will show Chile a destructive brand of football MUAHAHAHA!!!
The goalkeeper post suggests there are 4 attributes more important than any others: Reflexes, Jumping, Determination and Agility. The reason these 4 attributes matter more than the others is that at least 30 of more than 100 players had a rating of 16 or more in these attributes. I will determine each keepers base level using those 4 attributes. Of those 4 attributes Reflexes accounts for 34%, Jumping 25%, Determination 24% and Agility 17%. That is something I will take into account.
The first team has 3 keepers:
- Germán Sotelo (11.74)
- Iván Mateluna (10.36)
- Camilo Rodríguez (11.71)
The Reserve team has one keeper:
- Ernesto Bravo (9.86)
Finally the youth team has two keepers on the payroll:
- Mario Julio (8.8)
- Sebatián Piña (8.69)
Taking a closer look at the players keeping the 3 first teamers makes sense. Sotelo has a fair amount of natural skill and will be the natural first choice keeper. However, Rodríguez isn't fair behind and will keep him on his toes. Mateluna is a lot better than Bravo and will serve as a backup for the two main goalkeepers. Bravo on the other hand will be moved on. For the time being I will keep both Julio and Piña. They are nearly at the same level and although Julio is a more determined player it's too early to say.
My staff suggests playing either a 4-1-2-1-2 or a 4-1-3-1 formation so I'll set up tactics with both formations. This advice suggests that width will mainly come from my fullbacks. I'm thinking that I wan't to create tactics that work by starving the opposition of chances. I'll build from the back and destroy the opposition with deadly counter attacks - in theory. I will show Chile a destructive brand of football MUAHAHAHA!!!
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Value For Money In The Transfer Market
Moneyball and Soccernomics are two books that have really inspired me lately. And they brinig with them a different approach for the dealing with the transfer market. They point to the fact that dealing in the transfer market is little different from dealing on any other market. The key is to buy cheap and sell for a profit.
The key to buying cheap is to avoid doing what the big clubs are doing. Paying £50 million for a player like Fernando Torres is just plain silly when you can get 3-4 other players of similar quality in other positions.
The point is that buying strikers is generally a bad idea. Having been on the receiving end of such a policy in Lyon Houllier would probably disagree. The fact is though, that strikers are overrated in the transfer market. For the price of Fernando Torres you could easily get 4 goalkeepers of the same quality.
Where strikers are the most overrated players in football, goalkeepers are the most underrated. It seems to me that the old adage that you should build from the back isn't just a wise footballing decision. It is also a wise financial decision. Here are a couple of rules to live by in the transfer market.
Lyon has a philosophy that goes something like this: buy smart and improve your team. A better team improves your results. Better results gives you more money. Which gives you more money to buy smart and further improve your team.
This is a great philosophy. It might not be sexy. It certainly won't allow you to brag to your friends about how you signed Messi. It will on the other hand improve your team and give you a competitive edge in the future.
What Do You Do When You Have Sold All Your Strikers?
This is an obvious question you need to think about if you choose to follow the strategy outlined above. Here are 3 potential answers and a bonus answer.
Youth Development: Cherish the striker you get from your youth setup. Do your utmost to make these players as efficient as you possibly can. I know Football Manager caps their level with the potential ability attribute. I'd like to postulate that you can turn a player with a low potential ability into a lethal strikeforce if you handle him right. I had a save with Hearts where I had a DM with little natural ability who was a frequents starter. Why? He was good at exactly the things I needed him to be good at. The same can be done with strikers.
Freebies And Bosmans: The free transfer market can help you fill in the gaps you have in your team. Take a good look at strikers released by other teams, you might find someone you can use.
Retrain Players: You have no strikers but you have too many central defenders? Maybe one of the surplus central defenders would make a good target man? Other positions are useful as well. AMs could be deep lying forwards, wingers could be poachers etc.
BONUS - Switch Tactic: Roma and Manchester United have at times had succes with 4-6-0 formations, maybe you can do the same? There are always options.
The key to buying cheap is to avoid doing what the big clubs are doing. Paying £50 million for a player like Fernando Torres is just plain silly when you can get 3-4 other players of similar quality in other positions.
The point is that buying strikers is generally a bad idea. Having been on the receiving end of such a policy in Lyon Houllier would probably disagree. The fact is though, that strikers are overrated in the transfer market. For the price of Fernando Torres you could easily get 4 goalkeepers of the same quality.
Where strikers are the most overrated players in football, goalkeepers are the most underrated. It seems to me that the old adage that you should build from the back isn't just a wise footballing decision. It is also a wise financial decision. Here are a couple of rules to live by in the transfer market.
- Never buy strikers.
- Try to buy players from less prominent football nations. (that is avoid brazilians, dutchmen etc.)
- Build from the back.
- Never buy a player based on one performance.
- Always sell a player if offered more than he is worth.
Lyon has a philosophy that goes something like this: buy smart and improve your team. A better team improves your results. Better results gives you more money. Which gives you more money to buy smart and further improve your team.
This is a great philosophy. It might not be sexy. It certainly won't allow you to brag to your friends about how you signed Messi. It will on the other hand improve your team and give you a competitive edge in the future.
What Do You Do When You Have Sold All Your Strikers?
This is an obvious question you need to think about if you choose to follow the strategy outlined above. Here are 3 potential answers and a bonus answer.
Youth Development: Cherish the striker you get from your youth setup. Do your utmost to make these players as efficient as you possibly can. I know Football Manager caps their level with the potential ability attribute. I'd like to postulate that you can turn a player with a low potential ability into a lethal strikeforce if you handle him right. I had a save with Hearts where I had a DM with little natural ability who was a frequents starter. Why? He was good at exactly the things I needed him to be good at. The same can be done with strikers.
Freebies And Bosmans: The free transfer market can help you fill in the gaps you have in your team. Take a good look at strikers released by other teams, you might find someone you can use.
Retrain Players: You have no strikers but you have too many central defenders? Maybe one of the surplus central defenders would make a good target man? Other positions are useful as well. AMs could be deep lying forwards, wingers could be poachers etc.
BONUS - Switch Tactic: Roma and Manchester United have at times had succes with 4-6-0 formations, maybe you can do the same? There are always options.
Monday, June 27, 2011
The Sweeper - A Rare Breed
In the analysis of different positions in Football Manager we will now discuss the sweeper. The sweeper is so rare that I didn't feel I could reach a set of 100 players. To ensure that each player has at least some quality I have only included players worth at least £1.000.000. That leaves me with a set of just 24 players using my evaluation save which includes all the biggest European leagues and the Brazilian and Argentinean league. So, I can't really say that the data presented in this post can be considered conclusive in any way. However, there are some strong tendencies it might be worth exploring should you decide to be adventurous enough to employ the good old sweeper.
Here we go.
The technical attributes expected of the sweeper are hardly surprising.
Heading, Marking and Tackling are by far the most important technical attributes for the sweeper. In other words, the sweeper needs sound defensive capabilities to perform his duties.
Mentally the pictured is slightly more varied.
Positioning is clealy the most important attribute for a sweeper followed by Determination. Bravery and Influence also seem to be highly desirable attributes for a sweeper. I suppose this is because the sweeper needs to stand his ground and ensure that his defensive compatriots does so as well.
The data doesn't allow us to make a conclusive guess about which physical attributes are important for the sweeper. In fact, looking at the chart below we might even say that physical attributes aren't important at all as far as the sweeper is concerned. A little bit of Balance probably wouldn't hurt though.
Of the attributes mentioned I would say that only Heading, Positioning and Determination can be considered must haves based on the data available. That's the weakness with analysing positions such as the sweeper. The data simply isn't sufficient, but hopefully you still get a decent starting point out of this.
Here we go.
The technical attributes expected of the sweeper are hardly surprising.
Heading, Marking and Tackling are by far the most important technical attributes for the sweeper. In other words, the sweeper needs sound defensive capabilities to perform his duties.
Mentally the pictured is slightly more varied.
Positioning is clealy the most important attribute for a sweeper followed by Determination. Bravery and Influence also seem to be highly desirable attributes for a sweeper. I suppose this is because the sweeper needs to stand his ground and ensure that his defensive compatriots does so as well.
The data doesn't allow us to make a conclusive guess about which physical attributes are important for the sweeper. In fact, looking at the chart below we might even say that physical attributes aren't important at all as far as the sweeper is concerned. A little bit of Balance probably wouldn't hurt though.
Of the attributes mentioned I would say that only Heading, Positioning and Determination can be considered must haves based on the data available. That's the weakness with analysing positions such as the sweeper. The data simply isn't sufficient, but hopefully you still get a decent starting point out of this.
Sunday, June 26, 2011
The One Stat You Want Your Goalkeeper To Have...And A Few Other Nice Ones As Well!
Right, a while back I wrote a blog post about the anatomy of a world class player. Following the link will take you to that article. I have now decided to take that one step further and go through at each position one at a time in the same manner. The goal is to determine exactly what attributes you can't live without in each position. Todays post is about the last line of defense, the goalkeepers.
The methology is simple. I will go through each of the top 100 highest valued players in a specific position manually. Each attribute with a value of 16 or higher will be noted. If the value of the player in the 100th position the remaining players of the same value will be included. In the case of goalkeepers that means 108 players in total will be analysed.
By a huge margin there is one runaway attribute in the Goalkeeping Attributes department.
As you can see Reflexes is by far the single most important goalkeeping attribute. In fact it outranks all other attributes in my research by at least 16 points! The next Goalkeeping attribute I would like my keeper to have is One On Ones, but reflexes is the must have attribute that a good keeper must have.
The result in the mental attributes department took me by surprise. Although I knew the winning attribute was important in all players I had expected another attribute to shine a bit more than it did. Here's the graph.
Determination confirms its position as one of the most important attributes in the game. The second highest attribute, Positioning, was one I had expected to be more important than it apparently is. It's an attribute you would definitely like, but it's apparently not as important as other attributes.
In the physical department I went "Oh yeah. That makes sense."
Agility and Jumping are the physical attributes you want your keeper to have, and that makes a lot of sense. I was kind of surprised to see so many keepers having a high Natural Fitness, but there you go.
So, if you are looking for a new keeper the attributes he must have (in order of importance) are: Reflexes, Jumping, Determination and Agility. Secondary attributes it would be nice for your goalkeeper to have are: One On Ones, Handling, Kicking, Aerial Ability, Positioning and Natural Fitness.
The methology is simple. I will go through each of the top 100 highest valued players in a specific position manually. Each attribute with a value of 16 or higher will be noted. If the value of the player in the 100th position the remaining players of the same value will be included. In the case of goalkeepers that means 108 players in total will be analysed.
By a huge margin there is one runaway attribute in the Goalkeeping Attributes department.
The result in the mental attributes department took me by surprise. Although I knew the winning attribute was important in all players I had expected another attribute to shine a bit more than it did. Here's the graph.
In the physical department I went "Oh yeah. That makes sense."
So, if you are looking for a new keeper the attributes he must have (in order of importance) are: Reflexes, Jumping, Determination and Agility. Secondary attributes it would be nice for your goalkeeper to have are: One On Ones, Handling, Kicking, Aerial Ability, Positioning and Natural Fitness.
Saturday, June 25, 2011
Should He Stay Or Should He Go - Revolving Doors During The Transfer Window In Football Manager
It's silly season and today we'll discuss squad turnover. In other words how many players leave or join your club during a transfer window. I'll look into some different ideas for how you could do it and discuss the pros and cons of each as I see them. I've discussed the matter a bit with others as well to get their opinions.
Building For The Future/Internal Promotion
In this scenario all you ever do is sign youngsters with the purpose of grooming them for future roles in your team. You hardly ever strengthen the squad with senior players coming from other club, if you do they come to the club free or on very low fees.
Pros: Very inexpensive recruitment method. As most players you sign will start in the youth team or reserves, there won't be many squad blending issues in the senior squad.
Cons: It will be hard to instantly improve the squad using this method. Relying on youth players and freebies is a strategy that requires patience.
Applies to: Poor teams, usually in the lower leagues.
Impact Signings And Youth Development Only
You're mainly looking to improve the squad by promoting youngsters, but you do have the resources to occassionally sign a player that can make an immediate impact. You will probably be signing at most 2 such players every year. Additionally you will scour the world for future superstars.
Pros: You are able to maintain a constant level of quality in your squad and possibly challenge for trophies. You will most likely have very few squad blending issues.
Cons: You can't buy trophies the same way other teams can(try).
Applies to: Any team with fairly good although not unlimited resources.
Squad Rebuild
Occassionally we see teams switching almost their entire senior squad. This can happen during one or through a handful of transfer windows. This tends to be the case with teams that are preparing to take a step up and challenge at another level for which they need to improve their overall ability.
Pros: You get a stronger squad.
Cons: You will probably have severe squad blending issues. You will have to spend loads of cash.
Apllies to: Newly promoted teams with immense resources. Teams with immense resources switching to a new style of play.
Reach for The Stars and Sign Them
This strategy is really simple. Who are the biggest stars is the question you ask yourself. When you find the answer you sign those players without consideration of team balance.
Pros: You get very good players.
Cons: Squad blending is a constant issue. You need virtually unlimited funds.
Applies to: Chelsea, Man. City, Real Madrid
If you have a different transfer strategy I would love to know more!
Building For The Future/Internal Promotion
In this scenario all you ever do is sign youngsters with the purpose of grooming them for future roles in your team. You hardly ever strengthen the squad with senior players coming from other club, if you do they come to the club free or on very low fees.
Pros: Very inexpensive recruitment method. As most players you sign will start in the youth team or reserves, there won't be many squad blending issues in the senior squad.
Cons: It will be hard to instantly improve the squad using this method. Relying on youth players and freebies is a strategy that requires patience.
Applies to: Poor teams, usually in the lower leagues.
Impact Signings And Youth Development Only
You're mainly looking to improve the squad by promoting youngsters, but you do have the resources to occassionally sign a player that can make an immediate impact. You will probably be signing at most 2 such players every year. Additionally you will scour the world for future superstars.
Pros: You are able to maintain a constant level of quality in your squad and possibly challenge for trophies. You will most likely have very few squad blending issues.
Cons: You can't buy trophies the same way other teams can(try).
Applies to: Any team with fairly good although not unlimited resources.
Squad Rebuild
Occassionally we see teams switching almost their entire senior squad. This can happen during one or through a handful of transfer windows. This tends to be the case with teams that are preparing to take a step up and challenge at another level for which they need to improve their overall ability.
Pros: You get a stronger squad.
Cons: You will probably have severe squad blending issues. You will have to spend loads of cash.
Apllies to: Newly promoted teams with immense resources. Teams with immense resources switching to a new style of play.
Reach for The Stars and Sign Them
This strategy is really simple. Who are the biggest stars is the question you ask yourself. When you find the answer you sign those players without consideration of team balance.
Pros: You get very good players.
Cons: Squad blending is a constant issue. You need virtually unlimited funds.
Applies to: Chelsea, Man. City, Real Madrid
If you have a different transfer strategy I would love to know more!
Friday, June 24, 2011
Silly Season In Football Manager
This is one of those times bi-annual events that drives headlines like no other. The silly season aka. the transfer window. Clubs like Manchester City, Chelsea and Real Madrid look to break transfer records twice a year signing the best of the best without too much concern about whether or not these players fit into their game plan. Other clubs have more limited budgets and will simply try to get through the window strengthening their squad as much as their budget affords. Or at least without losing too many of their best players.
How do you go through the transfer window in football manager? Here are a couple of strategies that I've used in the past.
Championship Manager 2001/2002 Transfer Strategy
Still one of my favourite iterations of the football simulation game created by Sports Interactive. In this game scouting the next opponent meant getting a star rating on each of the players in the team. What I did was take a closer look at all 4 or 5 star players. Those I deemed would fit my criteria would be scouted again and if they looked good, added to my shortlist. Whenever a player who was on my shortlist was able to leave the club via Bosman I would sign him up. My squad had a huge turnover every season, and I did have to prune the shortlist every couple of seasons.
Application in FM2011: Although you don't get as comprehensive reports on players from the opposing team you could send your scouts to check out any players highlighted in scout reports or pre-match backroom meeting. This could be a good way to find your transfer targets and you could probably also get some decent Bosman signings along the way.
Assistant Advice
At any time you can check the advice from your assistant manager. Ask for a team report and he will tell you about your teams strengths and weaknesses from his perspective. He will also often suggest some players he believes you should take a look at.
I have done this more than once. I will send my scouts and if the player looks good I will start negotiations with his club.
Recommendations From Players
You can at any time ask one of your players to recommend a player he thinks you should sign. This is useful if you have a player who isn't blending into the squad very well. He is likely to recommend a player he has played with in the past he likes and believes is good enough for the team. The downside is that he may consider it unprofessional of you to ask advice about signings from players. Use with caution.
Trial Days
In many leagues they have trial days where players who have been released from their clubs gets a second chance to prove themselves to other clubs. This is mostly useful for smaller clubs who might find a player or two who can be an upgrade on what they've already got. It's not the place for big clubs like Barca, Inter or Liverpool to find players to bolster their squads.
International Competitions
After every World Cup, European Championship, Copa America etc. you can bet the big clubs will be on the best performers like a shoal of piranhas on a feeding frenzy. It happens every time. Sometimes the players will do well at their new clubs, but there are also many examples of players signed this way who fail to impress in their new surroundings. If you do this and sign a player from an exotic country it maybe worth while signing a good friend of his as well to keep him company.
Good Old-Fashioned Scouting
If it aint broke don't fix it some would say. This is the old school way of finding transfer targets. Sending your scouts around the world or around your country as your budget allows is a tried and tested way to find fresh meat for the grinder. Some players will fail others will succeed. That's where you need to step in and do your job to make sure you sign the right man for the job.
These are some of the many ways you can approach finding transfer targets for your club. Tomorrow I'll look into another important detail about the transfer season. The working title is "Should I Stay Or Should I Go" and the post will discuss how big the turnover of players in your squad should be. Or at least the consquences of different player turnover strategies.
How do you go through the transfer window in football manager? Here are a couple of strategies that I've used in the past.
Championship Manager 2001/2002 Transfer Strategy
Still one of my favourite iterations of the football simulation game created by Sports Interactive. In this game scouting the next opponent meant getting a star rating on each of the players in the team. What I did was take a closer look at all 4 or 5 star players. Those I deemed would fit my criteria would be scouted again and if they looked good, added to my shortlist. Whenever a player who was on my shortlist was able to leave the club via Bosman I would sign him up. My squad had a huge turnover every season, and I did have to prune the shortlist every couple of seasons.
Application in FM2011: Although you don't get as comprehensive reports on players from the opposing team you could send your scouts to check out any players highlighted in scout reports or pre-match backroom meeting. This could be a good way to find your transfer targets and you could probably also get some decent Bosman signings along the way.
Assistant Advice
At any time you can check the advice from your assistant manager. Ask for a team report and he will tell you about your teams strengths and weaknesses from his perspective. He will also often suggest some players he believes you should take a look at.
I have done this more than once. I will send my scouts and if the player looks good I will start negotiations with his club.
Recommendations From Players
You can at any time ask one of your players to recommend a player he thinks you should sign. This is useful if you have a player who isn't blending into the squad very well. He is likely to recommend a player he has played with in the past he likes and believes is good enough for the team. The downside is that he may consider it unprofessional of you to ask advice about signings from players. Use with caution.
Trial Days
In many leagues they have trial days where players who have been released from their clubs gets a second chance to prove themselves to other clubs. This is mostly useful for smaller clubs who might find a player or two who can be an upgrade on what they've already got. It's not the place for big clubs like Barca, Inter or Liverpool to find players to bolster their squads.
International Competitions
After every World Cup, European Championship, Copa America etc. you can bet the big clubs will be on the best performers like a shoal of piranhas on a feeding frenzy. It happens every time. Sometimes the players will do well at their new clubs, but there are also many examples of players signed this way who fail to impress in their new surroundings. If you do this and sign a player from an exotic country it maybe worth while signing a good friend of his as well to keep him company.
Good Old-Fashioned Scouting
If it aint broke don't fix it some would say. This is the old school way of finding transfer targets. Sending your scouts around the world or around your country as your budget allows is a tried and tested way to find fresh meat for the grinder. Some players will fail others will succeed. That's where you need to step in and do your job to make sure you sign the right man for the job.
These are some of the many ways you can approach finding transfer targets for your club. Tomorrow I'll look into another important detail about the transfer season. The working title is "Should I Stay Or Should I Go" and the post will discuss how big the turnover of players in your squad should be. Or at least the consquences of different player turnover strategies.
Thursday, June 23, 2011
Problems With Football Manager And Moneyball
Over at Howard Hamiltons Soccermetrics blog there is a great blog post about Moneyball and Soccer. Howard describes a metric he believes would be awesome in regards to football. I would love to get to work on that metric, in my own amateurical(is that actually a word?) fashion. However, as far as I can tell that's goiing to be a bit difficult. He describes some factors it might be wise to take into account for each of goalkeepers, defenders, midfielders and strikers.
Let's first relate those to what's available in FM. Italicized stats are those you can feasibly derive from other stats while bolded stats are those you can't easily figure out.
Goalkeepers
Suggested stats: saves, goals conceded, penalty kicks conceded, corner kicks conceded, passing/distribution %, balls won.
Defenders
Suggested stats: goal kicks forced, balls won/lost, corner kicks conceded, fouls conceded, penalty kicks conceded, passing %.
Midfielders
Suggested stats: passing %, balls won/lost, assists, fouls conceded, fouls won, corner kicks forced, shots, goals
Strikers
Suggested stats: shots, goals, passing %, balls won/lost, corner kicks forced, fouls won.
For the more defensively inclined positions that's a lot of metrics you simply either can't get or will have to work very hard to get. In my view this is a major shortcoming in the game. Another major shortcoming is that you can't see the players stats for previous seasons. Or at least I haven't figured out how to (if you have please be so kind as to tell me in a comment below!) do it.
In my view Howards startiing point is sound, and he definitely know a lot more about statistical analysis than I do (by a lot I mean much, much, much more than I do). Having said that, I can't stop thinking that the categories in his Moneyball and Soccer post are a bit too narrow. I mean would the same stats apply to a central defender and a fullback? What about the not so subtle differences between defensive midfielders, wide midfielders and attacking midfielders. These are things I believe would need to be adressend, but if it all got sorted out you would have an amazing metric to go by.
So, where does that leave us. Well, the game isn't totally useless. We can start to look at how the stats available to us influence the chance of winning matches. Obviously the average rating seems like a good indicator of the players quality, but any random player with a high average rating might not be the piece of the puzzle that makes your team come together.
I suppose it will be a matter of looking at your gameplan and trying to figure out what you're missing to make it complete. Just remember that you might not need a worldbeater to fill in the last piece of the puzzle.
Finally, I just want to plug Howards Moneyball and Soccer blog post one more time. It's really good!
Let's first relate those to what's available in FM. Italicized stats are those you can feasibly derive from other stats while bolded stats are those you can't easily figure out.
Goalkeepers
Suggested stats: saves, goals conceded, penalty kicks conceded, corner kicks conceded, passing/distribution %, balls won.
Defenders
Suggested stats: goal kicks forced, balls won/lost, corner kicks conceded, fouls conceded, penalty kicks conceded, passing %.
Midfielders
Suggested stats: passing %, balls won/lost, assists, fouls conceded, fouls won, corner kicks forced, shots, goals
Strikers
Suggested stats: shots, goals, passing %, balls won/lost, corner kicks forced, fouls won.
For the more defensively inclined positions that's a lot of metrics you simply either can't get or will have to work very hard to get. In my view this is a major shortcoming in the game. Another major shortcoming is that you can't see the players stats for previous seasons. Or at least I haven't figured out how to (if you have please be so kind as to tell me in a comment below!) do it.
In my view Howards startiing point is sound, and he definitely know a lot more about statistical analysis than I do (by a lot I mean much, much, much more than I do). Having said that, I can't stop thinking that the categories in his Moneyball and Soccer post are a bit too narrow. I mean would the same stats apply to a central defender and a fullback? What about the not so subtle differences between defensive midfielders, wide midfielders and attacking midfielders. These are things I believe would need to be adressend, but if it all got sorted out you would have an amazing metric to go by.
So, where does that leave us. Well, the game isn't totally useless. We can start to look at how the stats available to us influence the chance of winning matches. Obviously the average rating seems like a good indicator of the players quality, but any random player with a high average rating might not be the piece of the puzzle that makes your team come together.
I suppose it will be a matter of looking at your gameplan and trying to figure out what you're missing to make it complete. Just remember that you might not need a worldbeater to fill in the last piece of the puzzle.
Finally, I just want to plug Howards Moneyball and Soccer blog post one more time. It's really good!
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
Transfer Strategy - The Moneyball Saga Continues
More chapters of Moneyball has been read and more interesting theories have emerged. Targeting high school players is generally considered a bad idea, whereas targeting college players yields better results. Since football(soccer) outside of the US generally doesn't have that distinction how would that transfer to Football Manager and football in general?
The point is that the very young player is more of a gamble as empirical evidence of his quality is less profound. He is also mentally less prepared to the pressure of first team football. The advantage of targeting youth players is that they are usually fairly cheap.
In Football Manager if a player reaches the early twenties without showing his potential he is more often than not written off completely. Football Manager operates with 2 attributes behind the scenes that is a genuine cause for virtual managers to do this. Those two attributes are current ability and potential ability. These traits are hidden from the manager, as they should be, but it seems logical to assume that if a player is not showing signs of ability when he is close to his prime he never will.
To follow Billy Beanes transfer strategy you would mainly have to target players ranging from 19-23 years of age. Those are players who are no longer considered youth players, have had time to show their potential at their clubs and have yet to reach their prime.
That, however, is not all. You need to determine their ability in the game. Physical stats such as Pace and Jumping have often been highly rated in Football Manager. Now is the time to try to look past that. In a prior article I did some research on the prominent attributes of world beaters, and those are good traits to look for. However, I'm suggesting not using the player attributes as the first metric when considering whether or not you are going to sign a player.
Look at the players performance in the past. How it is developing. And how the player is contributing to the overall team performance.
At the start of the game this is nearly impossible and that's when you probably have to focus mainly on the players attributes. Try to look past the numbers though. Personality should play a huge part. As should a players prefeered moves if he has any.
Right. This is just a bunch of ramblings right now. And honestly I don't really know what you should primarily look for. I'm still investigation and so are a lot of other people. Allow me to suggest looking at the Soccer Analysts blog which is frankly pretty awesome!
The point is that the very young player is more of a gamble as empirical evidence of his quality is less profound. He is also mentally less prepared to the pressure of first team football. The advantage of targeting youth players is that they are usually fairly cheap.
In Football Manager if a player reaches the early twenties without showing his potential he is more often than not written off completely. Football Manager operates with 2 attributes behind the scenes that is a genuine cause for virtual managers to do this. Those two attributes are current ability and potential ability. These traits are hidden from the manager, as they should be, but it seems logical to assume that if a player is not showing signs of ability when he is close to his prime he never will.
To follow Billy Beanes transfer strategy you would mainly have to target players ranging from 19-23 years of age. Those are players who are no longer considered youth players, have had time to show their potential at their clubs and have yet to reach their prime.
That, however, is not all. You need to determine their ability in the game. Physical stats such as Pace and Jumping have often been highly rated in Football Manager. Now is the time to try to look past that. In a prior article I did some research on the prominent attributes of world beaters, and those are good traits to look for. However, I'm suggesting not using the player attributes as the first metric when considering whether or not you are going to sign a player.
Look at the players performance in the past. How it is developing. And how the player is contributing to the overall team performance.
At the start of the game this is nearly impossible and that's when you probably have to focus mainly on the players attributes. Try to look past the numbers though. Personality should play a huge part. As should a players prefeered moves if he has any.
Right. This is just a bunch of ramblings right now. And honestly I don't really know what you should primarily look for. I'm still investigation and so are a lot of other people. Allow me to suggest looking at the Soccer Analysts blog which is frankly pretty awesome!
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Going Moneyball On FM
If you have read some of the previous blog posts you will have noticed that I'm fairly obsessed with Sabermetrics. So, now I've started reading the book that started it all, Moneyball. Although the book is mainly about baseball I have a strong feeling that the principles can be applied to pretty much anything. So far the book revolves around one man, Billy Beane. A guy who was himself touted as one of the best things in baseball since sliced bread. He didn't succeed at the highest level of the game as was expected, but he learnt many valuable lessons.
The main principle I can take from the book so far, and I'm only two chapters in, is never to take what you see as a measure of a players quality. What you need to do is take a good look at first the game, and then the player. You need to find out what is the most important factor in winning the game. Then you have to find the players contributing the most to that.
Since the book has more than a few more chapters in it I'm pretty sure that's oversimplifying it quite a bit. However, it seems like a good starting point.
So, what wins footie games? The obvious answer is goals. It's just not enough, though, looking at who scores the most goals. You need to find the factors that a. creates goals and b. prevents them.
So, how would one go about this? My idea, which of course involves excel, is to take a look at a lot of games played in the game. Looking at the stats and use the data to figure out which are the most important factors to winning.
This should actually make it easier to create tactics as well as sign players. The main problem though would be the lack of stats when just startinig the game. So, the analysis would require a save with at least one season in it. I would have to look at the stats for all games played to determine the most important game winning factors.
Sounds like a lot of work, but also sounds like a very fun challenge.
The main principle I can take from the book so far, and I'm only two chapters in, is never to take what you see as a measure of a players quality. What you need to do is take a good look at first the game, and then the player. You need to find out what is the most important factor in winning the game. Then you have to find the players contributing the most to that.
Since the book has more than a few more chapters in it I'm pretty sure that's oversimplifying it quite a bit. However, it seems like a good starting point.
So, what wins footie games? The obvious answer is goals. It's just not enough, though, looking at who scores the most goals. You need to find the factors that a. creates goals and b. prevents them.
So, how would one go about this? My idea, which of course involves excel, is to take a look at a lot of games played in the game. Looking at the stats and use the data to figure out which are the most important factors to winning.
This should actually make it easier to create tactics as well as sign players. The main problem though would be the lack of stats when just startinig the game. So, the analysis would require a save with at least one season in it. I would have to look at the stats for all games played to determine the most important game winning factors.
Sounds like a lot of work, but also sounds like a very fun challenge.
Monday, June 20, 2011
What Team To Manage?
Selecting a team in Football Manager can be done in a multitude of ways. Many select their favourite team. Others select a team randomly. And some evens start the game unemployed. Today, having too much time on my hands for once, I decided on another approach. I looked through the available teams in the lowest division of all playable leagues and found teams with names I though seemed funny in some way.
In a world map view they are located as follows.
View Funny teams in a larger map
Asia and South America has the most teams. I'm not yet ready for Asia I think (or Asia isn't ready for me), but I do fancy a save starting in South America. I will include The English and Scottish leagues in the game as well as I have a hard time seeing me play a save without those. I hate playing in Scandinavia so the Swedish team is ruled out effortlessly and Chimney Corner is probably the least humorous name of the lot.
Somehow the name Lota Schwager intrigues me. I'm pretty much certain that will be where I start my next save. So Chile is in and so is Uruguay because it's got 2 teams in the mix. I'll be looking for a save with 5 leagues and that means the last spot goes to Brazil or Colombia. I don't fancy getting shot in drug related crimes and Brazil has such an unorthodox league structure that I have to give it a go. The final Verdict then is:
This should be most interesting!
- Beijing 361 Degrees (China) - The last degree makes all the difference.
- Indian Arrows (India) - Medieval Gunners?
- Ansan Hallelujah FC (S. Korea) - Blessed?
- Chimney Corner (N. Ireland) - Got a nice ring to it.
- Morön BK (Sweden) - Sounds a bit moronic to be honest.
- Joinville (Brazil) - Who wouldn't want to be a joiner.
- Lota Schwager (Chile) - Possibly open to misinterpetration.
- Centauros (Colombia) - A mythical quest.
- Atenas (Uruguay) - Aesthetic football a must?
- Rentistas (Uruguay) - Proper rentboys!
In a world map view they are located as follows.
View Funny teams in a larger map
Asia and South America has the most teams. I'm not yet ready for Asia I think (or Asia isn't ready for me), but I do fancy a save starting in South America. I will include The English and Scottish leagues in the game as well as I have a hard time seeing me play a save without those. I hate playing in Scandinavia so the Swedish team is ruled out effortlessly and Chimney Corner is probably the least humorous name of the lot.
Somehow the name Lota Schwager intrigues me. I'm pretty much certain that will be where I start my next save. So Chile is in and so is Uruguay because it's got 2 teams in the mix. I'll be looking for a save with 5 leagues and that means the last spot goes to Brazil or Colombia. I don't fancy getting shot in drug related crimes and Brazil has such an unorthodox league structure that I have to give it a go. The final Verdict then is:
- Brazil
- Chile (Starting point)
- England
- Scotland
- Uruguay
This should be most interesting!
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