If you have read some of the previous blog posts you will have noticed that I'm fairly obsessed with Sabermetrics. So, now I've started reading the book that started it all, Moneyball. Although the book is mainly about baseball I have a strong feeling that the principles can be applied to pretty much anything. So far the book revolves around one man, Billy Beane. A guy who was himself touted as one of the best things in baseball since sliced bread. He didn't succeed at the highest level of the game as was expected, but he learnt many valuable lessons.
The main principle I can take from the book so far, and I'm only two chapters in, is never to take what you see as a measure of a players quality. What you need to do is take a good look at first the game, and then the player. You need to find out what is the most important factor in winning the game. Then you have to find the players contributing the most to that.
Since the book has more than a few more chapters in it I'm pretty sure that's oversimplifying it quite a bit. However, it seems like a good starting point.
So, what wins footie games? The obvious answer is goals. It's just not enough, though, looking at who scores the most goals. You need to find the factors that a. creates goals and b. prevents them.
So, how would one go about this? My idea, which of course involves excel, is to take a look at a lot of games played in the game. Looking at the stats and use the data to figure out which are the most important factors to winning.
This should actually make it easier to create tactics as well as sign players. The main problem though would be the lack of stats when just startinig the game. So, the analysis would require a save with at least one season in it. I would have to look at the stats for all games played to determine the most important game winning factors.
Sounds like a lot of work, but also sounds like a very fun challenge.
Sounds good. How far have you gotten? After working my way through the managing ranks I've gotten to Liverpool and won a treble after my first season. Now I want to implement moneyball tactics to move forward and bring in talented players without the high cost. You should read Soccernomics too. Seems football has a bad tendency to overpay for players that are not worth that much money. It's similar to baseball, but different since you're signing players not trading them. Thus I figure I need to sign good wonderkids when they are young, 16-20 yrs old, for no more than 6 or 7 mil. By the time they are 25, 26, 27 I should be able to sell them for at least double the price bought for. The thing about FM is that as managers we can see the players attributes, which you can't in real life, and if you have an FMRTE you can even see the CA/PA. So for me it's trying to find what is beyond attributes that makes a player special.
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